Mild, windy conditions have persisted across northwestern Europe in recent days, keeping short-term prices low, particularly in the gas market, where the day-ahead contract fell to 63.10 ppt. Next week will look very different, with forecasts pointing to a sharp 10-degree drop in the region’s average daily temperature. Yet despite the expected surge in demand and the relatively low European gas storage level (at 82.3%, down 0.7% since Thursday), prices are actually down week-on-week. This reflects a combination of factors: longer-range forecasts showing a return to seasonal temperatures by month-end, steady wind generation through the cold wave, and the anticipated increase in LNG supply in the coming weeks, supported by updates from Cheniere (see below). 

Despite optimism around the end of the US government shutdown, Brent decreased after an OPEC outlook signalled that global supply will slightly exceed demand in 2026, marking a shift from the group's earlier deficit projections. 

The IEA raised its global oil supply forecasts, now expecting increases of 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026, both up 100k bpd on the month and signalling a larger surplus in 2026.