13 August 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Short-term power prices have remained very high across Europe this week, with yet another heatwave and the ongoing drought impacting both supply and demand. Day-ahead baseload in the UK peaked at £150.10/MWh for delivery today, and while cooler and windier conditions are expected going into next week, the impact on gas demand, against a backdrop of low LNG supply, will continue to be felt in the weeks and months ahead. On top of bullish spot prices, further support for longer-term contracts has come from the lack of progress towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz, amid an apparent deadlock in peace talks between the US and Iran despite the ongoing ceasefire. Headlines remain volatile and at times contradictory, with both sides, for example, claiming to have control of the Strait. For now, oil and LNG cargoes are not moving, gradually increasing the pressure on Winter 26 prices, particularly with European gas storage currently only 59.4% full.


bull-jpg

 
Gas_Power

General Context
Union_Jack_Icon

Britain’s economy unexpectedly grew by 0.3% in June, as businesses benefited from easing Iran-driven energy prices, while the World Cup and hot weather provided a further boost.

Union_Jack_Icon

The latest BRC data showed UK retail sales growth slowing to 1.3% y-o-y in July, from 1.9% in June, as a 3.8% rise in food sales was partly offset by a 0.7% decline in non-food spending, pointing to softer consumer demand and continued pressure on discretionary spending.

Oil

Brent crude is up $8/bbl week-on-week amid stalled talks and ongoing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, with vessel crossings, excluding container ships, falling to just five on Wednesday, the lowest in three weeks.

The EIA expects around 600,000 bpd of US-Iran war-related supply disruptions to persist through end-2027. Near-term disruption remains far larger, with Hormuz shipments averaging just 4.9m bpd in Q2 2026, down from 21.6m bpd before the war.

Oil

Gas & Power
Temperature_Icon

 

Across much of Europe, extreme heat and drought have continued to constrain power generation, affecting thermal and hydro output in Italy. In France, EDF’s heat-related nuclear curtailments are expected to peak today at 10.7 GW, or 16.9% of its fleet, with pressures also reported in Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia. 

Price fluctuation_Up_Icon

 

 

Europe’s storage deficit continues to widen, with inventories at 59.4%, nearly 13 percentage points below last year, making a start to winter near historic lows increasingly likely. The limited buffer raises the risk of a tight spot market in the event of prolonged cold weather or supply disruptions and is likely to continue supporting prices.

Electricity_Icon
 

The British government is reportedly considering delaying its 2030 clean power target by 1-2 years, which aims to meet 95% of UK electricity demand with clean power, amid concerns over rising household bills. The move signals a greater focus on affordability, with potential easing of EV targets also under consideration.

Current Prices
Screenshot 2026-08-13 at 14.44.16

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Screenshot 2026-08-13 at 14.44.28

Sustainability Spotlight

Investment in UK solar and battery storage is accelerating

Danish independent power producer (IPP) European Energy has secured £58.1 million in construction financing from Danske Bank for a UK solar-plus-storage project in Cornwall. Construction started in May of this year and will pair 68MV of solar PV capacity with a 47.5MW/95MWh battery energy storage system (BESS). The company should start commercial operations in 2027.

For businesses, that signals a growing role for battery-backed renewables in the UK energy mix. As storage becomes more commercially viable, organisations may have more options to secure renewable power, improve price certainty and assess whether on-site generation and storage can strengthen long-term energy strategy.
Sustainability_Spotlight

 

Talk to our experts

 

All information displayed on this report is to be used for indicative purposes only. The accuracy can not be fully guaranteed and as such True Group holds no liability for actions taken based on the information presented in this report. The contents of the report may not be reproduced, copied or defaced without prior written consent of True Group.