20 November 2025

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

The focus this week has been on the ongoing cold wave across Northwestern Europe, which has pushed average daily temperatures down by around 10°C within just a few days and driven a corresponding rise in gas demand. However, the impact on prices has been relatively contained, with only day-ahead electricity markets showing notable increases. Tomorrow is expected to be the most affected, largely due to lower wind generation: UK baseload is currently trading at £108.50/MWh, while Germany is at €145.00/MWh. Yet despite this short-term stress, longer-dated contracts are slightly lower week-on-week, thanks to expectations of increased LNG supply in the coming months, as highlighted in the latest bearish reports from investment banks. 



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General Context
UK Flag

 

UK inflation fell to 3.6% in October (the first deceleration since March), supporting the case for a BoE rate cut next month, as the planned Budget tax increases risk adding pressure to an already fragile economy. 

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British consumer confidence fell sharply in November, its steepest decline since April, according to the British Retail Consortium, as government signals of potential income-tax rises in this month’s budget heightened concerns about the economy and household finances. 

Oil

 

Prices edged higher amid upcoming US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil that have already disrupted Russian supply, as well as a drawdown in US crude inventories. Nonetheless, the outlook remains bearish, with oversupply expected to persist in 2026. 

Goldman Sachs projects oil prices to fall through 2026, citing a production surge that will maintain a market surplus of about 2 million bpd. It forecasts Brent at $56/bbl and WTI at $52/bbl in 2026. 

 

 
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Gas & Power
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Germany plans to introduce a state-funded industrial power price cap of EUR 50/MWh, pending EU approval. Demand for the scheme is expected to peak in 2026, with aid covering up to an average of 50% of companies’ power use over three years. The government expects costs of EUR 1.7bn in 2025 and EUR 0.8bn annually thereafter. Only firms with sufficiently high electricity cost shares will qualify. 

Solar

 

Germany added 1.1 GW of solar and 0.6 GW of onshore wind capacity in October, according to regulator BNA. The additions lifted total solar capacity to 113.6 GW (up 13% or 13.1 GW this year) while onshore wind reached 67 GW, a rise of 3.5 GW. Germany is targeting 215 GW of solar and 115 GW of onshore wind by 2030. 

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Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project has loaded another shipment, bringing this year’s total to 14 despite ongoing Western sanctions. Shipping data shows the Buran tanker collected the latest cargo between November 18 and 19, with all 14 deliveries sent to China’s Beihai terminal in southern Guangxi. 

Current Prices
Market 13/11/25 20/11/25 Change
Brent (January) $63.00

$64.00
UK Allowances (December 25) £58.00 £57.85
UK Gas (NBP): December 25 80.25p
 81.25p
UK Gas (NBP): Summer 26 74.00p 73.75p
UK Gas (NBP): Winter 26 81.50p 80.75p
UK Power: December 25 £81.00 £83.50
UK Power: Summer 26 £71.00
 £70.75
UK Power: Winter 26 £79.75 £79.25

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Screenshot 2025-11-20 at 16.25.53

Sustainability Spotlight

 

COP30: Over 80 countries and 70 organisations call for a fossil fuel phase-out.

In a dramatic standoff in COP30 negotiations, 82 countries demanded a clear transition away from fossil fuels. The nations are pushing for the commitment made at COP28 needs to be a central outcome and a roadmap strongly embedded in the final deal. The UK is among those calling for a roadmap, however the EU was notably missing. Certain member states; Denmark and Germany backed the initiative but the bloc has not adopted a unified position.

A letter to the COP30 Presidency signed by business groups representing over 100,000 companies, the C40 network and other actors including EDF and H&M group has added further support to a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap.

This debate remains one of the summit's most contentious points, especially as 1 in every 25 registered delegates at Belem is a fossil fuel lobbyist and in the marked absence of US representation.

 
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Talk to our experts

 

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