16 October 2025

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

This week has been marked by a lack of wind, driving very high short-term power prices: baseload for Tuesday in Germany settled at €156.14/MWh on EPEX, while UK baseload for yesterday cleared at £107.42/MWh on N2EX. Longer-term contracts, however, have not followed suit, instead reflecting the weak economic environment, the sharp drop in oil prices, and renewed expectations that rising LNG production will help balance the European gas market. Despite relatively low gas storage levels in Europe (currently at 83.0%), these factors are likely to continue putting downward pressure on prices in the coming months. 



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General Context
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Britain’s labour market showed signs of stabilising in recent months: payroll employment rose by 10,000 between July and August and private sector wage growth slowed to a nearly four-year low, while the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.8% in the three months to August, from 4.7% in July. 

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In the Eurozone, industrial production fell 1.2% in August, led by a sharp drop in capital goods output, with additional declines in durable goods and intermediate goods, underscoring ongoing uncertainty as manufacturers adapt to shifting global trade patterns. 

Oil

The front-month Brent contract has declined sharply over the past week, weighed down by persistent US-China trade tensions and projections of an oversupplied market in 2026. Reports that India plans to halt purchases of Russian oil have so far had little impact on prices. 

The IEA projects a global oil surplus of nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2026, an unprecedented level, driven by slower demand growth and higher non-OPEC output. 
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Gas & Power
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Russia carried out another wave of drone strikes this week against Ukraine’s gas production infrastructure, hitting combined heat and power plants operated by state-owned Naftogaz. The Kharkiv region was targeted again after two major attacks earlier in October. Analysts warned that, as a result, Ukraine may need to boost its gas imports by around 25% ahead of winter. 

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EDF has restarted its newest nuclear reactor, Flamanville 3, following maintenance and repairs since June. Commissioned last December after being over a decade delayed and billions over budget, it will gradually ramp up to full capacity by the end of autumn. It should generate about 8.1 TWh annually from 2026 - 2028 (around 2% of French nuclear output) and 11.5 TWh from 2029 - 2031. 

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China has taken delivery of a ninth LNG cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project. The Arctic Metagaz tanker, also under Western sanctions, arrived at the Beihai LNG Terminal in Guangxi on October 14 after loading the cargo at the Saam floating storage unit in Murmansk in mid-July. 

Current Prices
Market 09/10/25 16/10/25 Change
Brent (December) $66.00 $62.50
UK Allowances (December 25) £54.25 £54.75
UK Gas (NBP): November 25 82.25p 81.50p
UK Gas (NBP): Summer 26 77.25p 76.25p
UK Gas (NBP): Winter 26 85.00p 83.50p
UK Power: November 25 £83.00 £82.75
UK Power: Summer 26 £72.25 £71.50
UK Power: Winter 26 £81.25 £80.75

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Screenshot 2025-10-16 at 14.09.20

Sustainability Spotlight

EU CSRD and CSDDD sustainability reporting scope reduced to only apply to largest businesses.

Last week, the European Parliament reached a compromise agreement on the Omnibus simplification of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).

The thresholds of both Directives will be dramatically increased, set to restrict CSRD and CSDDD to only the largest companies. Key changes are that CSRD will apply to all companies with over 1,000 employees, up from the previous 250, and CSDDD will now only cover companies with at least 5,000 employees. This proposal will be voted on next Monday 20th October to come to a final deal.

For companies no longer in scope, the sustainability reporting would become voluntary. Talk to our True Crew experts to see how you can position yourself as a green leader with your reporting.
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