21 May 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Short-term fundamentals have remained firm this week, with much colder-than-average temperatures across Europe and weak renewable generation supporting gas demand and power prices. UK day-ahead baseload power for Tuesday 19th May peaked at £111.68/MWh, lending support to longer-dated contracts. However, this strength is expected to fade in the coming days as much warmer temperatures and record solar output reduce both power prices and gas demand. Regarding the Middle East, markets continue to follow the same pattern: Trump signals that a ceasefire is close, oil and gas prices fall, no concrete progress follows, and markets move higher again. Geopolitical risk therefore remains the key market driver, with the threat of renewed military escalation continuing to underpin the risk premium across gas and power markets.



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General Context
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UK job vacancies fell to a five-year low in April as employers continued to cut headcount, underscoring the growing economic strain linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The unemployment rate edged up to 5% in the three months to March.

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Meanwhile, UK inflation slowed more than expected to 2.8% in April, offering households and businesses temporary relief from the surge in energy prices caused by the regional conflict.

Oil

Brent is trading slightly lower week-on-week following recent positive signals from both sides of the Iran conflict indicating their willingness to engage in a new round of negotiations. Market sentiment was further supported by confirmation that some shipping traffic has resumed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil stockpiles have been depleting at an accelerated pace recently, with Goldman Sachs estimating that visible inventories have declined by 8.7 mb/d so far in May, nearly double the average drawdown rate observed since the conflict began.
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Gas & Power
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Maintenance workers have gone on strike at Woodside Energy’s North West Shelf and Pluto LNG export facilities in Australia after negotiations between contractor UGL and unions broke down. This adds to broader labour risks across Australia’s LNG sector, with workers at Inpex’s Ichthys plant also issuing strike notice from 27th May.

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Analysts expect global LNG export capacity to rise by 33.1bcm in 2026. In the US, Golden Pass Train 1 (8.3bcm) shipped its first cargo in April, while Corpus Christi Stage 3 Trains 5–7 (7.3bcm) are due online this year. Conogan Marine XII FLNG (3.3bcm) shipped its first cargo in February, while LNG Canada Train 2 (9.8bcm) and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul LNG (4.4bcm) are both expected to reach full capacity by mid-year.

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The US LNG supply situation has added pressure to an already tight market this week, with planned maintenance at Cameron, Corpus Christi and Freeport. In addition, Golden Pass (which exported its second cargo on 9th May) has also entered what a spokesperson described as “normal start-up related maintenance”.

Current Prices
Current Market Prices 2105

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

UK sustainability reporting just got more complex

SECR already requires large UK companies to disclose energy use and carbon emissions in their annual financial reports. Now, the incoming UK Sustainability Reporting Standards, built on IFRS S1 and S2, are adding a further layer of obligation that boards can no longer treat as a future problem.

For large organisations, this means more data, more scrutiny, and less room for inconsistency. Getting reporting right isn't just about compliance, it protects reputation, satisfies investors, and avoids regulatory exposure.
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