26 February 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Despite low European gas storage levels, short-term gas and power prices have softened lately, driven by significantly warmer-than-average temperatures, strong wind generation, and steady LNG imports. In France, for example, robust nuclear and renewable output has already pushed prices down to spring-like levels, with day-ahead baseload for delivery today clearing at €22.75/MWh. Geopolitics remains the key upside risk: ongoing US-Iran negotiations are in focus, with material upside potential for oil and gas prices should tensions escalate into open conflict and disrupt regional exports. However, assuming any disruption proves temporary, we maintain a bearish medium-term outlook, as the expected ramp-up in global LNG supply is set to weigh on prices.



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General Context
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British retail sales rose 1.8% in January from December, exceeding expectations and marking the largest increase since May 2024, driven partly by strong sales of artwork, antiques and online jewellery, according to the Office for National Statistics.

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German consumer sentiment is projected to weaken in March, with a larger-than-anticipated decline as households scale back spending intentions amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the direction of social policy.

Oil

Brent prices are trading largely unchanged week-on-week, as market focus remains firmly fixed on US-Iran negotiations. Today’s round of talks has the potential to drive significant volatility across markets.

OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day in April, following a three-month pause in production increases. The move comes as peak summer demand and ongoing tensions between the US and Iran are expected to support prices.

Oil

Gas & Power
Carbon

 

Carbon prices remain under pressure as several member states (including Germany, Austria and Italy) push for significant reform of the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Sentiment has weakened further following reports that an alliance of energy-intensive industries is urging the EU to cap wholesale power prices for industrial users at €50/MWh and to extend indirect ETS cost compensation beyond 2030.

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Exceptionally mild weather for this time of year, combined with strong wind generation, has slowed the pace of gas withdrawals from European storage. Inventories are currently 30.3% full, marking a 2.2 percentage point decline week-on-week, compared with a 3.6 percentage point draw the previous week.

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China continues to import LNG from the sanctioned Russian Arctic LNG 2 project: the LNG carrier Arctic Vostok departed the Tieshan terminal at the Port of Beihai (Guangxi, southern China) on 24 February, having arrived a day earlier. It is the sixth Russia-linked LNG carrier to call at the Tieshan terminal so far in 2026.

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

 

EU Council gives final approval to Omnibus Sustainability Deregulation package
On Tuesday, EU member states gave final approval the "Omnibus I" simplification package of changes weakening corporate sustainability reporting and due diligence requirements which will now pass into law in the coming weeks. It significantly scales back the number of companies covered by key EU sustainability legislation, including the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD).

For CSRD, the new threshold of 1,000 employees removes an estimated 90% of companies from the rules and for CSDDD, the deadline to comply has been delayed by two years to mid-2029 and will now apply to only the largest companies - those with over 5,000 employees and €1.5 billion in
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Talk to our experts

 

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