17 September 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Despite low nuclear generation across the continent and unplanned North Sea gas outages, favourable weather conditions have allowed short-term gas and power prices to ease from their recent highs. However, the outlook for the coming months remains bullish, with two key drivers in focus: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and temperatures. With European gas storage at a historical low of 68.7%, and assuming Qatari LNG exports remain disrupted, Bank of America and consultancy ICIS see European gas prices reaching 250.00 p/th or more under a colder-than-average scenario. ICIS’ base case puts winter prices at around 200.00 p/th, with around 20.00 p/th of downside under a warmer-than-average scenario.


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General Context
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UK inflation rose to a five-month high of 3.1% in August, driven largely by higher fuel prices. Meanwhile, the labour market continued to soften, with unemployment at 4.9% and wage growth easing to 3.5%. 

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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to 4%, its first increase since 2023, with policymakers pencilling in a potential further hike later this year, while the Bank of England kept rates on hold at 3.75%.

Oil

The Brent front-month contract is trading lower but remains close to recent highs, as reports that Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers to Oman have eased near-term supply concerns.

Saudi Aramco aims to restore around half of the East-West pipeline’s 7 mb/d capacity within days and full operations within six weeks. The pipeline, a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, remains disrupted, delaying some crude deliveries to Europe.

 
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Gas & Power
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Temperatures are moving closer to seasonal averages across Europe, with little cooling demand and no meaningful heating demand yet. Strong wind and solar generation will ease spot power prices in the coming days, before lower wind, high gas prices and nuclear outages provide support next week.

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Exceptionally low French river flows could curb nuclear generation until at least mid-October, with little rainfall expected before then. Environmental constraints have already cut output by a record 10.6 TWhs this year (2.8% of 2025 generation), with available capacity currently restricted by around 9%.

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The Dutch government has lowered its winter gas storage target to 64%, aiming to limit further pressure on wholesale gas prices. The move follows EU guidance allowing member states to reduce their target by 10 percentage points when market conditions justify it.

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

House of Lords probes risks of low renewable generation

The House of Lords has launched an inquiry into whether Britain is prepared for prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as Dunkelflaute.

As electricity demand rises, the Committee will examine whether Clean Power 2030 can deliver a secure, affordable and low-carbon system when renewable output falls. Solutions under review include long-duration storage, flexible low-carbon generation, interconnectors and strategic reserves.

For businesses, the debate highlights why the energy transition is about more than renewable capacity. System flexibility and security of supply will be critical to maintaining reliable power and managing costs as Britain becomes increasingly dependent on renewable electricity.
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