20 August 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

The past few days have seen a marked escalation in Middle East tensions following statements from the US and Iran, several tanker attacks, and the UAE’s decision to impose a trade embargo and suspend all financial transactions with Iran after accusing Tehran of launching ballistic missiles towards the state. With no clear path towards a resolution to the conflict, the return of normal Middle East LNG flows continues to be delayed, adding further pressure to the European gas storage outlook. According to analysts, under a cold-weather scenario (and assuming no LNG exports from Qatar), inventories could be almost fully depleted by early March, highlighting significant upside price risk through the winter and the potential for a challenging Summer 27 refill season. Against this backdrop, and amid planned and unplanned maintenance at Norwegian fields, Winter 26 gas prices have risen by a further 10% week-on-week and, with no spare LNG cargoes available in the near term, could increase further, particularly if US output is disrupted by hurricanes in the coming weeks.


bull-jpg

 
Gas_Power

General Context
Union_Jack_Icon

UK employers cut jobs in June and vacancies fell further, highlighting continued weakness in the labour market. Unemployment stood at 4.9%, as businesses held back on hiring amid high labour and energy costs and persistent economic uncertainty.

Union_Jack_Icon

Meanwhile, UK inflation accelerated sharply to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June, as higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict pushed it further above the Bank of England’s target.

Oil

Oil prices have risen by more than $6/bbl week-on-week as talks to end the US-Iran war remain deadlocked, while the prospect of further US economic pressure on Iran has provided additional support.

Meanwhile, supply risks stemming from the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts continue to tighten the physical crude market. Russian seaborne exports fell for a fifth consecutive week to 3.58 mb/d, while production declined to a six-year low of 8.89 mb/d, nearly 1 mb/d below its permitted OPEC+ level.

Oil

Gas & Power
Gas_Icon_Market_Update

 

Germany’s gas grid operator group FNB Gas warned yesterday that the country faces a “critical” gas storage situation, with stocks around 50% full versus 67% last year. While opposing intervention in routine storage filling, the government plans a 24 TWh (2.3 Bcm) strategic gas reserve for supply emergencies, with stocking expected to begin in Summer 27.
battery

 

 

Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) announced that the 500 MW Coalburn 1 battery energy storage system (BESS) in South Lanarkshire has begun commercial operations, while the 500 MW Coalburn 2 and Devilla projects are expected to come online over Winter 27.

Emissions-2
 

An EU-UK summit, seen as key to finalising a deal to re-link the UK and EU emissions trading systems, is expected in the fourth quarter after being postponed from June following the change in UK leadership. Re-linking the two markets is likely to narrow the current spread between UK and EU allowances (currently around £10/tonne), providing support to UK power prices.

Current Prices
Screenshot 2026-08-20 at 13.11.17

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Screenshot 2026-08-20 at 13.11.23

Sustainability Spotlight

The Jellyfish Incident

Jellyfish swarms have forced parts of France’s Gravelines nuclear plant offline for the second August in a row. EDF said “several dozen tons” have blocked seawater pumping systems in August 2026, despite monitoring measures introduced after the 2025 incident.

The disruption comes as French nuclear plants face increasing pressure from heatwaves, drought and warmer seas, all of which can affect reactor cooling and plant operations.

For businesses, it highlights a wider energy risk: climate-related disruption can affect even established generation assets. That makes supply resilience, market risk and long-term energy planning increasingly important.
Sustainability_Spotlight

 

Talk to our experts

 

All information displayed on this report is to be used for indicative purposes only. The accuracy can not be fully guaranteed and as such True Group holds no liability for actions taken based on the information presented in this report. The contents of the report may not be reproduced, copied or defaced without prior written consent of True Group.