27 November 2025

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Despite very high gas demand and strong short-term power prices this week (with UK baseload clearing at £109.23/MWh for Tuesday delivery), prices for December and beyond have fallen sharply. Mild and windy forecasts from this weekend onward, together with hopes that ongoing peace talks could increase Russian energy exports, have reinforced an already bearish outlook driven by expectations of higher LNG supply in the coming months. Summer 26 gas, for instance, is down more than 5.00 ppt (7%) week on week, now trading at 68.50 ppt, an attractive buying opportunity given relatively low gas storage levels and the risk that peace negotiations may take longer than the market currently anticipates. 



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General Context
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German business morale weakened unexpectedly in November, with firms scaling back expectations for a near-term economic recovery after two years of contraction. Sentiment fell across all sectors except services, which posted a slight uptick. 

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In the UK, retailers reported the sharpest deterioration in confidence in 17 years, with sales extending their decline amid persistently soft demand, as households remain cautious in their day-to-day expenditure. 

Oil

 

Crude prices eased week-on-week as growing expectations of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia raised speculation that sanctions on Russian oil could be rolled back, potentially adding supply to an already well-supplied market. 

OPEC and its allies are expected to keep output unchanged at Sunday’s meeting, three OPEC+ sources said, after the group opted in October to pause the unwinding of cuts scheduled for early 2026. 

 

 
Oil

Gas & Power
Coal

 

The UK government has softened its stance on new oil and gas permits by allowing fresh drilling in the North Sea, but only adjacent to existing fields. The move enables incremental, economically attractive projects that might otherwise have been delayed or cancelled. However, it is unlikely to materially alter the UK’s long-term production decline. 

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Despite strong LNG imports, gas withdrawals from European storage sites have accelerated over the past two weeks due to the cold wave and variable wind generation. Storage levels have fallen to 77.6%, a 4.7% drop in two weeks, and are now 9.8% below where they stood at this time last year. 

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China’s LNG imports are expected to fall for the 13th straight month in November, down 5.5% year on year, as rising domestic production reduces demand for LNG. Imports have been declining all year, hitting a six-year low earlier in 2025. Meanwhile, China is increasing pipeline gas imports from Russia and has agreed to expand the Power of Siberia pipeline to over 100 billion cubic meters annually. 

Current Prices
Market 20/11/25 27/11/25 Change
Brent (January) $64.00

$63.00
UK Allowances (December 25) £57.85 £57.50
UK Gas (NBP): December 25 81.25p
 75.75p
UK Gas (NBP): Summer 26 73.75p 68.50p
UK Gas (NBP): Winter 26 80.75p 76.00p
UK Power: December 25 £83.50 £79.75
UK Power: Summer 26 £70.75 £68.75
UK Power: Winter 26 £79.25 £76.75

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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