Mild and windy conditions have prevailed again this week, but this is set to change with the arrival of the winter’s second cold wave. While its duration and intensity remain uncertain (as it is not expected to begin until mid-next week), it is a key driver behind the recent rebound in gas and power prices. The bounce has also been supported by a slight decline in US feedgas volumes and uncertainty over a potential tightening of US sanctions on Russian energy exports, which could be announced if Putin rejects a proposed peace deal. Given these factors, further increases in short-term prices appear likely. However, with significantly higher LNG supply expected in the coming months, the bearish medium- and long-term outlook remains intact. 

The front-month Brent contract rebounded from recent lows on renewed geopolitical tensions, led by Trump’s blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers and proposed additional US sanctions on Russian oil, though prices remain down week-on-week. 

The IEA slightly reduced its 2026 oil surplus forecast to 3.84 million barrels per day from 4.09 million, citing stronger demand and lower supply from Russia and Venezuela amid ongoing sanctions. 

EU Omnibus Package finally passed in European Parliament.

On Tuesday evening, the European Parliament officially approved Omnibus deregulation package following months of negotiations. This marks a sweeping scale back of the EU sustainability legislation, dramatically simplifying the sustainability reporting scope and due diligence requirements for businesses operating within the bloc.

In particular, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) have been cut back, even though the directives are central to the EU climate action framework and key pillars of the European Green Deal.