29 October 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

European energy markets have experienced another highly volatile week, particularly in short-term power prices, driven by sharp fluctuations in wind generation amid elevated gas prices. Gas markets have also seen significant volatility, with the November contract reaching 249.00 p/th yesterday, the highest front-month level since December 2022. However, prices are easing back today following reports of renewed diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran, alongside efforts by Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey to broker an agreement involving renewed international nuclear inspections in exchange for limited sanctions relief. With uncertainty surrounding potential US military action following the 3rd November midterm elections, markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, while any meaningful progress towards negotiations could quickly erode some of the substantial risk premium currently built into forward prices. 

 

bull-jpg

 
Gas_Power

General Context
UK Flag

The UK’s latest Budget forecasts point to slower economic growth and higher inflation, with the OBR cutting its 2027 growth forecast from 1.6% before the Iran war to 1.0%, largely reflecting the impact of higher energy costs.

Rise

The Fed and ECB held interest rates at 3.75% - 4.00% and 2.50% respectively, as persistent inflation and rising energy costs continue to weaken the economic outlook. With inflation remaining well above the 2% target in both economies, further rate hikes in December remain possible, although both central banks face the challenge of containing inflation without undermining economic growth.

Oil

Brent crude is currently trading at $113.50/bbl, supported by ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East. Intensifying Houthi attacks on energy infrastructure, alongside attacks on vessels and mine strikes, are disrupting regional exports and raising concerns over supply in the coming months.

Despite the disruption, Persian Gulf crude continues to reach global markets via alternative routes, including Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline and US-protected shipping. US Central Command has reportedly helped transport 1.5 billion barrels through the Strait since June. Meanwhile, ADNOC has confirmed its new Hormuz-bypass pipeline remains on track to begin operating in early 2027, potentially doubling the UAE’s crude export capacity via Fujairah.
Oil

Gas & Power
Nuclear

Prolonged drought and record-low Danube water levels continue to disrupt nuclear generation, with Romania’s two Cernavoda reactors (1.4 GW, accounting for around 20% of national output) expected to remain offline throughout November. In Hungary, similar conditions forced the shutdown of the Paks plant this summer, although generation has since recovered. Meanwhile, French nuclear availability has improved to over 42 GW, but declining river flows, particularly near Chooz, remain a concern.

LNG_Icon

QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG deliveries to Italy’s Edison until the end of December, affecting a further three cargoes. Customers in Pakistan and Bangladesh have also been notified of extensions until year-end, while India’s Petronet LNG faces disrupted deliveries through November. Edison’s long-term contract with QatarEnergy covers around 10% of Italy’s annual gas demand.

Energy_Spike

A mild and very windy weekend, followed by a sharp drop in wind generation and a return to seasonal temperatures, has driven exceptional volatility in day-ahead power prices. In Germany, baseload prices surged from €13.12/MWh for delivery on Sunday to €314.85/MWh for delivery today. Looking ahead, colder-than-normal weather is forecast with high confidence across France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands from 4–8 November, which, combined with low wind generation, is expected to keep prices elevated.

Current Prices
Current_Prices_29_October_2026

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Rolling_Month_Average_29_October_2026

Sustainability Spotlight

UK Government Reaffirms Clean Energy Commitment in Autumn Budget

The government reaffirmed its commitment to clean energy and net zero by 2050 in the Autumn Budget, positioning renewable power as central to reducing energy costs.

Measures announced include a £100 winter payment for 20 million households, an extension of electricity VAT relief, government funding for hydrogen projects and the removal of gas standing charges from 2027.

However, environmental groups criticised the measures as insufficient. Friends of the Earth and Ember argued that greater investment in insulation, heat pumps and electricity market reform is needed to reduce the UK's exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices.
Sustainability_Spotlight

 

Talk to our experts

 

All information displayed on this report is to be used for indicative purposes only. The accuracy can not be fully guaranteed and as such True Group holds no liability for actions taken based on the information presented in this report. The contents of the report may not be reproduced, copied or defaced without prior written consent of True Group.