Prices have rebounded sharply this week, driven by a combination of factors: low renewable generation, colder-than-average temperatures, the start of the maintenance season at gas facilities in the North Sea and the US, and emerging signs of progress on trade tariffs, potentially including deals between the US and key trading partners. However, the main catalyst has been the EU’s announcement that it aims to reduce Russian gas imports by a third by the end of the year. Russian gas still accounts for approximately 20% of European imports, and if the measure is implemented, it could lead to a very tight gas market heading into 2026, as new LNG export capacity in the US and Qatar is not yet online. Gas and power prices have risen by around 8% week-on-week, and could see further upside, particularly with the approach of Europe’s heatwave season and the onset of the US hurricane season. 

Brent crude prices rose by $2.10 per barrel week-on-week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and optimism that upcoming US-China talks could ease trade frictions. 

OPEC+ has agreed to increase crude oil output by 411,000 barrels per day in June, marking a second consecutive monthly rise. The decision, led by Saudi Arabia, comes despite a subdued global economic outlook. 

ScottishPower secures £1.35bn to upgrade UK grid for clean energy transmission

ScottishPower has secured £1.35bn to upgrade the UK’s electricity grid, including £600m from the National Wealth Fund - its largest investment to date. The funding will accelerate seven key transmission projects, such as subsea cables to boost renewable energy flow from Scotland to England. These upgrades are crucial for meeting the UK’s 2030 clean power goals, improving grid resilience and supporting green jobs, reinforcing the nation’s commitment to decarbonisation and energy security.