18 June 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Short-term markets, particularly power, remain well supported by the ongoing heatwave, especially across the Continent. Dutch baseload power for delivery today cleared at €143.63/MWh, while temperatures are expected to intensify further, peaking at nearly 8°C above seasonal norms on Monday and driving additional cooling demand. In France, EDF has warned of potential output restrictions at three nuclear plants on the Rhône and Garonne rivers due to elevated water temperatures, providing further support to prices. Further along the curve, however, contracts have fallen sharply following the Iran-US agreement and expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen. Most analysts expect oil and gas markets to return to oversupply over the coming quarters, barring any major supply disruptions. 


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General Context
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UK inflation unexpectedly held steady at 2.8% in May, while private sector pay growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than five years in the three months to April, adding to evidence that underlying inflationary pressures are moderating.

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 Global stocks have risen in recent days as markets welcomed an interim agreement between the US and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices to their lowest level since early March.

Oil

Brent has fallen to $77/bbl, down more than $14/bbl week-on-week, as markets continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium following the preliminary US-Iran agreement and the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

Reflecting the improved supply outlook, Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $90/bbl and cut its 2027 average price estimate to $75/bbl from $80/bbl. The bank now expects Gulf oil exports to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of July, one month earlier than previously anticipated.

 

 

 
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Gas & Power

Early shipping signals are cautiously positive, with some vessels resuming Hormuz transits. However, overall traffic remains limited and the lack of new cargo fixtures suggests shipowners remain wary. Goldman Sachs now expects Gulf exports to recover to around 70% of pre-war levels by end-July, with Hormuz transit volumes and the removal of operational constraints remaining key indicators for the market.

According to a source familiar with the matter, QatarEnergy is prepared to restart LNG production at Ras Laffan at short notice and could return to full output within a month, excluding the two damaged trains. The key challenge will be shipping and logistics, particularly how quickly the company can secure vessels and resume cargo loadings once the Strait reopens, the source added.

The UK and EU are making steady progress towards linking their carbon markets, with the UK targeting a deal at the 22nd July Brussels summit. A linked ETS would help protect around £7bn of UK exports, particularly steel and aluminium, from EU carbon border taxes. Any agreement will still need approval from the EU Council and European Parliament.

Current Prices
market update 18 june

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
markets 18 june

Sustainability Spotlight

UK sustainability reporting obligations are tightening 

SECR already requires large UK companies to disclose energy use and carbon emissions within annual financial reports. Now, incoming UK Sustainability Reporting Standards are set to formalise and expand climate-related financial disclosure further.

For finance, sustainability and ESG leaders, the compliance picture is increasingly complex and the cost of getting it wrong goes beyond regulatory risk. Investors, lenders and major customers are scrutinising this data more closely than ever. 
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