6 November 2025

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

This week has seen a steady decline in wind generation, particularly across continental Europe, with Germany’s output falling from nearly 50,000 MW over the weekend to potentially below 2,000 MW during some hours of the coming weekend. Short-term power prices have responded accordingly, while forecasts indicating a return to seasonal temperatures in the second half of the month have added to market concerns amid relatively low European gas storage levels, currently at 83.0%, virtually unchanged since early October. Despite the near-term volatility, the longer-term outlook remains bearish thanks to rising global LNG supply led by the US and Qatar. 



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General Context
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The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4% but signalled a possible cut as early as next month amid signs of a weakening labour market and lingering inflation pressures. 

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Global manufacturing remained under pressure in October as weak US demand and renewed tariffs weighed on factory orders across major economies, with euro zone activity stagnating and China’s growth slowing. 

Oil

 

Prices fell $1 a barrel this week despite OPEC’s plan to pause production increases in early 2026 and uncertainty over the impact of US sanctions on Russian supply. 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its Brent forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60/b from $57.50/b, while oil major Eni expects a $60–65/b range over the next six months. 

 
Oil

Gas & Power
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During a call with analysts earlier this week, ExxonMobil executives said they expect a “cooldown” LNG cargo sourced from Qatar to arrive at the Golden Pass facility in Southeast Texas by the first week of December. The delivery should enable the plant to begin processing gas shortly thereafter, with initial export cargoes potentially reaching Europe by the end of December. 

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The US exported a record 10.1 million tonnes of LNG in October, up from a revised 9.1 million tonnes in September, according to recent data. Already the world’s largest LNG exporter, the US has achieved four record-setting months so far in 2025, driven by the startup of Venture Global’s Plaquemines export terminal and the continued ramp-up of Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3 project. 

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Germany’s gas-fired power generation has hit its highest level since 2021, up 15% in the first ten months of 2025 from a year earlier amid weak wind and hydropower output. Gas has supplied 19% of the country’s electricity so far this year, the highest January–October share since 2015, complicating efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of peak winter demand. 

Current Prices
Market 30/10/25 06/11/25 Change
Brent (January) $65.00 $64.00
UK Allowances (December 25) £56.25 £57.00
UK Gas (NBP): December 25 83.00p 82.50p
UK Gas (NBP): Summer 26 76.25p 76.00p
UK Gas (NBP): Winter 26 83.75p 83.50p
UK Power: December 25 £80.75 £83.25
UK Power: Summer 26 £71.25 £71.50
UK Power: Winter 26 £80.25 £80.50

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

 

UK Government Publishes New Carbon Budget Delivery Plan

As mandated by courts, the Labour government unveiled their carbon budget and growth delivery plan (CBGDP) last week. The CBGDP sets out policies to decarbonise key industries to achieve the UK's legally-binding carbon budgets, and claims the measures detailed will achieve 96% of emissions reductions required by 2030.

 

A clear focus is on the benefits of the clean energy economy; reducing household bills, creating new jobs and catalysing export opportunities. The CGBDP commits to increase the UK's low-carbon power generation from current 38% to 98% by 2035.
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