29 January 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Gas prices have been volatile again this week, with the February contract trading between 95.50 ppt and 113.00 ppt (currently at 101.00 ppt). Prices were initially driven by a severe cold wave in the US and its impact on LNG production; while feedgas volumes are now nearly back to normal, renewed bullishness emerged later in the week. This reflects expectations of another cold wave in the second half of February and rising tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns over potential disruptions to LNG exports from Qatar, against the backdrop of low European gas storage levels (at 43.5%, down 4.9 percentage points on the week). While the current rally may continue in the near term, assuming Qatar flows remain stable, prices are likely to resume their downtrend once milder temperatures arrive, Golden Pass confirms its start date and rising solar generation gains momentum.



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General Context
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According to the British Retail Consortium, prices at major UK retailers rose at the fastest pace since February 2024 in January, driven by higher costs for food, furniture, and health and beauty products. The BRC’s shop price index showed a 1.5% annual increase, up from 0.7% in December. 

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The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for the first time since July, as Chair Powell cited robust economic growth and a stabilising labour market, suggesting a potentially extended pause before any additional rate cuts. 

Oil

 

The front-month Brent contract rose to a four-month high this week after a winter storm disrupted US oil production, while heightened tensions between the US and Iran, a weak dollar and ongoing outages in Kazakhstan provided additional support. 

Winter Storm Fern forced several US producers to curtail operations this week, with total outages peaking near 2 million barrels per day (around 15% of production). Output is expected to return to normal by the weekend. 

 
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Gas & Power
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Several LNG companies imported natural gas into the US this week to capitalize on record spot prices triggered by a severe cold wave that cut output and pushed demand to near-record levels. BP and Shell were reported to have shipped gas from Trinidad and Tobago to multiple US and Canadian terminals, an unusual move, as these cargoes would normally have gone to Europe. 

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Slovakia will file a lawsuit against the EU’s decision to ban Russian gas imports, adopted by a qualified majority despite opposition from Slovakia and Hungary. The ban will end Russian LNG imports by the end of this year and pipeline gas by late 2027; Hungary has also said it will challenge the law at the European Court of Justice, while the EU plans further measures to phase out Russian oil and nuclear fuel. 

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This week, the first LNG cargo of the year from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant was delivered to China’s Beihai LNG terminal after being loaded near Murmansk and shipped via the Suez Canal. Since starting production in late 2023, Arctic LNG 2 has sent all its cargoes to China, delivering 23 cargoes totalling 1.3 million tons to Beihai LNG last year. 

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

 

Hamburg Declaration signed by UK and Europe to secure clean energy future.

At the North Sea Summit on Monday, Ed Miliband signed a pact with eight European countries to jointly deliver 100GW of offshore wind projects in shared waters by 2050. Known as the Hamburg Declaration, the historic commitment was adopted by ministers from Germany, France, Belgium, Norway, Ireland, Netherlands, Denmark, Luxembourg and the UK to drive forward hybrid clean power assets and enhance Europe's energy resilience.

 
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