11 September 2025

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Wind generation across Europe has been volatile this week, with a very weak start driving strong day-ahead power prices, particularly in Germany, where baseload for delivery on Tuesday, 9 September, cleared at €142.45/MWh on EpexSpot. Wind output has since increased and is expected to rise further over the weekend, with prices reacting accordingly: UK baseload for Tuesday is currently trading at £24.00/MWh. Gas prices would typically follow the move; however, heavy maintenance at Norwegian North Sea facilities and lower European storage levels compared with 2024 and 2023 are expected to limit the downside. In longer-term markets, the focus has been on Russian energy exports, which could come under further US and EU sanctions. If these measures do not lead to lower deliveries to global markets — as has been the case in recent years — the downtrend in prices is expected to resume, supported by the upcoming increase in LNG output from the US and Qatar. 



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General Context
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The European Central Bank held interest rates steady at 2%, with inflation on target, while lingering trade and political risks leave open the possibility of further easing. 


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UK retail sales rose 3.1% in August, driven by lower interest rates and sunny weather, with strong demand for food, furniture, and back-to-school computers. However, retailers fear speculation about tax rises could weigh on consumer confidence and spending in the weeks ahead. 

Oil

Prices were little changed week-on-week, as expectations of slowing demand growth and a supply overhang offset rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Europe.  

Meanwhile, OPEC+ will raise oil production by 137,000 bpd from October, a slower pace than in recent months, as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share despite weaker demand; since April, the group has added 2.5 mbpd, or roughly 2.4% of global demand. 

 

 

 
Oil

Gas & Power
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In an auction held this week, SEFE was unable to allocate the additional 3 TWh of storage capacity offered at the Rehden facility for the 2025/2026 period. Low economic incentives — driven by narrow price spreads between October and November versus December to March — continue to limit interest. As a result, Rehden remains just 26.9% full, compared with Germany at 74.2% and the European average at 79.7%. 

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Due to recent pressure from the United States, the European Commission chief said yesterday that the EU is considering accelerating the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, including gas — currently scheduled for the end of 2027 — as part of new sanctions against Moscow. 

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A third LNG shipment from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project arrived in China on Tuesday, ship-tracking data showed. This follows earlier deliveries in late August and over the weekend, the latter coming just days after President Putin's visit to China. The facility, majority-owned by Novatek (60%), has a planned annual output of 19.8 million tons, though Western sanctions have cast doubt on its future. 

Current Prices
Market 04/09/25 11/09/25 Change
Brent (November) $67.00 $67.25 ^
UK Allowances (December 25) £54.80 £57.00 ^
UK Gas (NBP): October 25 78.00p 80.75p ^
UK Gas (NBP): Winter 25 85.00p 87.00p ^
UK Gas (NBP): Summer 26 78.00p
 79.50p ^
UK Power: October 25 £74.75 £76.00 ^
UK Power: Winter 25 £82.75 £84.50 ^
UK Power: Summer 26 £73.50 £75.00 ^

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
Screenshot 2025-09-11 at 14.28.43

 

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