25 June 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

The record-breaking heatwave across Europe has lifted cooling demand while simultaneously constraining power supply through weaker wind generation under persistent high-pressure conditions and reduced nuclear output due to river temperature restrictions. This has driven very highprompt power prices and stronger-than-expected gas demand for power generation. Belgium recorded the highest day-ahead baseload price this week at €257.55/MWh, while the UK day-ahead baseload price reached £159.10/MWh for delivery on Wednesday 24th June. Despite these short-term market pressures, forward contracts have continued to soften as the gradual recovery in oil and LNG tanker movements into and out of the Gulf has eased concerns over future supply disruptions.


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General Context
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The UK's private sector remained in contraction in June, with the Composite PMI slipping to 49.4 as weaker services activity weighed on output. The data reinforce expectations of further BoE rate cuts later this year.

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 German consumer confidence stabilised in July but remained subdued. While stronger income expectations provided some support, weak willingness to spend and elevated savings continued to reflect persistent economic uncertainty.

Oil

Brent crude has fallen to its lowest level since late February, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalise. The recovery in Middle East oil flows has eased concerns over supply disruptions and accelerated the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium.

Around 20 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, signalling a rapid normalisation in regional flows. Gulf producers are also restoring exports, with UAE shipments rebounding alongside increased supplies from Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran.

 

 

 
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Gas & Power
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Swiss utility Axpo has halved output at its 730 MW Beznau nuclear power plant due to high water temperatures in the River Aare. Meanwhile, heat-related restrictions in France could reduce nuclear availability by up to 5 GW today, around 8% of total capacity, with EDF planning to cut or halt output at five reactors as high river temperatures limit cooling water availability on the Seine, Garonne and Rhône.

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A summit to finalise the linking of the UK and EU Emissions Trading Systems has been postponed following the UK prime minister's resignation. The UK government said it would seek to hold the summit at the earliest opportunity, with EU Council president Antonio Costa confirming the delay was necessary after Starmer's resignation.

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Despite the disruption to LNG exports from Qatar over the past three months, European gas storage injections have remained resilient, with inventories rising by 9.4 percentage points over the past month to 47.2%. Injection rates should accelerate over the summer, assuming Qatari exports gradually normalise.

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

Grid delays are the hidden risk in your renewables strategy

The UK's AR7 offshore wind auction delivered real progress but industry leaders at All-Energy 2026 were clear: grid delays, transmission charging and political uncertainty are still threatening future investment. New battery storage capacity is expected to support winter 2026-27 margins, but the infrastructure bottlenecks affecting PPA pricing and on-site renewables timelines aren't going away.

For large organisations with net zero commitments tied to renewable procurement, these delays have direct commercial consequences on project timelines, contract structures and on cost.
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