30 April 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

The combination of strong renewable output and low seasonal demand has kept short-term power prices low, particularly in France, where robust nuclear availability is adding further downward pressure: baseload prices for delivery from Friday 24th April to today have averaged €7.74/MWh. By contrast, gas and oil markets have seen a sharp increase in volatility, with Brent briefly spiking to a four-year high of $126.41 overnight before correcting by around $10 this morning. For now, the Middle East remains the key driver, with risks of renewed military action and potential further damage to Qatari LNG infrastructure continuing to support the risk premium in gas contracts.



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General Context
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UK shop price inflation slowed to 1.0% in April 2026 (from 1.2% in March) as retailers increased discounting amid weak demand, with the drop offering temporary relief for households.

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Both the ECB and the Bank of England have kept interest rates unchanged, signalling a cautious stance as they assess persistent inflation and the outlook for economic growth.

Oil

Brent climbed to a four-year high of $126.41/b, underpinned by renewed geopolitical risk centred on Iran after the US opted to maintain its blockade and signalled preparations for potential military action.

The UAE said it would leave OPEC from 1st May, citing a shift towards prioritising national interests and expanding production capacity. The move marks a significant structural rupture, though the immediate bearish impact is limited due to the ongoing conflict.
Oil

Gas & Power
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EU gas demand is set to fall by 8bcm (2.5%) to 314bcm this year, pressured by high prices, persistent geopolitical risk and rising renewable output, according to Kpler. Regionally, northwest Europe is set to decline by 4bcm, southern Europe by 6bcm, while the rest of the EU-27 is expected to see a 2bcm increase.

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European power markets plunged to record negative levels on Sunday as strong renewable output collided with weak demand. France posted its lowest day-ahead baseload price since June 2013 at €-40.83/MWh, while intraday prices dropped below €-400.00/MWh across Germany, France and Hungary, including a low of €-480.01/MWh in Germany.

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Despite the ongoing interruption in LNG exports from Qatar, low demand and strong renewable output have driven a 4.3 percentage point increase in European gas storage levels since 1st April. Inventories are currently 32.2% full, compared with 39.0% at the same point last year.

Current Prices
Current Prices (30 April)

UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
UK Gas (30 April)

Sustainability Spotlight

Sustainability Spotlight: UK publishes final climate reporting rules.

 

The UK government has released its finalised Sustainability Reporting Standards (UK SRS S1 and S2), aligning large company disclosures with ISSB requirements. Across the Atlantic, California has approved mandatory Scope 1, 2, and 3 reporting regulations, with New York following suit. The direction across major economies is consistent: detailed, auditable emissions data is becoming a legal requirement, not a voluntary commitment.

For large organisations, the risk is straightforward, without robust energy and carbon data infrastructure in place now, compliance becomes a scramble. Gaps in Scope 2 or Scope 3 data will be visible and costly.
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