16 April 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Despite the Strait of Hormuz remaining fully shut, oil and gas prices have softened again week-on-week, while equity markets have pushed higher, with sentiment shifting towards a potential restart of US-Iran talks and a broader normalisation of conditions in the region. The situation remains highly uncertain; however, assuming a gradual return to normal production and exports from the Middle East, gas and power prices should move back towards pre-war levels. This would be supported by strong nuclear availability in France, continued growth in renewable generation across Europe, and an expected increase in LNG supply from North America, Australia and Qatar (albeit delayed by the war).



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General Context
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World stock markets are climbing for a 10th straight day, hitting new record highs and completing a six-week round trip from the heavy selloffssparked by the war in the Middle East.

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UK GDP expanded by 0.5% month-on-month in February, the largest increase since January 2024, according to the ONS. Economists note that Britain remains vulnerable to fallout from the Middle East conflict, given its reliance on imported energy and greater exposure to inflation than peers.

Oil

Oil prices have eased slightly week-on-week as the market balances diplomatic signals against still-severe physical disruption: there are signs that the US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension; however, the continued effective closure of the Strait is keeping supply conditions tight.

The physical oil market remains under acute strain, with the US blockade and Tehran’s restrictions reducing transit to a trickle. Even after accounting for bypass routes such as Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, the net disruption is estimated at around 10 mb/d this month, as sanction waivers on Russian and Iranian oil expire.

Oil

Gas & Power
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Iran is reportedly open to allowing ships to transit safely via the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz as part of a potential deal with the US to avoid renewed conflict. This would mark a de-escalation from earlier, more aggressive proposals such as transit fees or asserting sovereignty over the strait.

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The European Commission said today it has approved state aid schemes in Germany, Bulgaria and Slovenia to provide temporary electricity price relief for energy-intensive industries. The budgets are €3.8bn for Germany, €334mn for Bulgaria, and €90mn for Slovenia.

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Britain will have sufficient gas to meet demand and exports to Ireland this summer, even if the Iran war continues to curtail global LNG supplies, operator National Gas said this week. Total gas demand for April–September is forecast to remain stable year-on-year at 29.8bcm, with supply expected to reach 29.5bcm. Last year, supply for the period totalled 27.4bcm

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

UK Government approves largest power-producing solar farm

The government has signed off on 800MW Springwell Solar Farm, what will become the largest solar power project in the UK. It will be built in Lincolnshire, covering 1,280 hectares and is expected to power 180,000 homes annually; equivalent to half of Lincolnshire's households.

Developed by EDF power solutions, Springwell joins the large group of nationally significant clean energy projects which constitute a pipeline capable of powering over 12.5 million homes and shows a clear focus on domestic renewable energy amid global instability.
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