12 March 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Despite the concerning situation in the Middle East and its impact on gas prices, short and mid-term power prices have remained relatively low, supported by strong renewable output, mild temperatures, above-average temperature forecasts across Europe, and robust nuclear generation in France. For example, UK day-ahead baseload for delivery tomorrow cleared at £63.30/MWh, while French day-ahead settled at €41.56/MWh, with May baseload in France currently trading around €22.00/MWh. Long-term prices have remained supported and continue to track geopolitical developments. Upside risks persist as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and supply disruptions continue, including the ongoing halt to LNG exports from Qatar.



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General Context
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British consumer spending grew modestly in February as households turned more pessimistic about the economic outlook, with the Middle East conflict adding to concerns about a renewed rise in inflation.

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The dollar has extended gains against the euro and sterling, hovering near this year’s highs as surging crude prices fuelled concerns about inflation and tighter monetary policy. The stronger dollar also raises the cost of dollar-denominated commodities for European buyers.

Oil

Brent briefly traded above $110/ bbl this week before retreating, with the recent rally and elevated volatility driven by reports of tanker attacks in the Middle East. The incidents have heightened uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The IEA has agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from emergency oil reserves over the coming weeks to help cushion disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Details on the pace of the release, however, are still awaited.
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Gas & Power
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According to sources, Shell has declared force majeure on LNG cargoes it purchases from QatarEnergy and sells to clients worldwide. Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, halted production at its 77 million tonnes per annum facility last week and declared force majeure on shipments. Other Qatari LNG buyers, including TotalEnergies and several Asian companies, have also received force majeure notices.

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LNG Canada, the Shell-led project in Kitimat, British Columbia, has ramped up exports to Asia this month, with cargoes headed to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. The plant, which began operations in June 2025, has already shipped five cargoes in the first 11 days of March (more than half of its total February exports), with a sixth cargo expected later this week.

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The EU is considering measures to curb energy prices, including a potential gas price cap, as high costs continue to weigh on European industry. The EU introduced a price cap in 2022 (set at €180/MWh), but it was never triggered and expired last year. Regarding a return to Russian energy imports, von der Leyen said it would be a “strategic blunder”, despite calls from Hungary to lift sanctions on Russian oil imports.

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

UK Launches Buildings Net Zero Carbon Standard

Years in the making and collaboratively developed with input from over 350 experts, the new cross-industry standard for UK buildings to be certified as net-zero carbon has launched. The Standard covers operational emissions generated through building use and embedded emissions within the design, supply chain and construction process.

Free-to-access Version 1 delineates how a building should meet the standard, the technical evidence required and how this should be reported and verified, with verification services first available from Q2. Aligned with national legally binding carbon budgets and climate targets, the Standard provides much-needed clarity to building net-zero claims.
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