24 September 2026

Weekly Energy Market Update 

Outlook

Oil and gas markets have been highly volatile this week, falling sharply on Monday and Tuesday on hopes that renewed Middle East peace talks could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait, while forecasts pointed to a much warmer-than-average start to October. Winter 26 gas fell 26.00 p/th (13%) from Friday’s peak of 199.50 p/th before rebounding (currently at 188.50 p/th), as uncertainty around the conflict and disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz persist. Looking ahead, geopolitics and weather will remain the key drivers, with risks skewed to the upside and any meaningful sell-off likely requiring concrete steps towards reopening the Strait.


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General Context
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UK services growth slowed in September, with the PMI falling to 51.7 from 52.5, while inflationary pressures intensified amid higher energy costs. Manufacturing strengthened, with the PMI rising to 52.0 from 51.7, supported by stronger domestic orders and improved business optimism.

 

European equities came under pressure as faltering US-Iran negotiations sent oil prices higher. Higher energy prices also revived inflation concerns and kept bond yields elevated, weighing on regional markets.

Oil

Brent crude prices briefly dipped this week amid efforts from Saudi Arabia to restart the East-West pipeline and renewed hopes of US-Iran diplomacy. However, with the prospects for de-escalation still uncertain, prices have since recovered.  

Goldman expects Chinese crude imports to rise by only around 600,000 b/d in Q4 versus Q3, assuming prices remain elevated. This suggests the anticipated recovery in Chinese buying will be relatively modest, providing limited additional support to global oil demand.
Oil

Gas & Power

LNG exports from regions outside the Persian Gulf have been largely steady this week, aside from planned maintenance at Australia’s Ichthys LNG plant and Cove Point in the US. Observed feedgas flows to Cove Point have now fallen to almost zero, indicating that the scheduled maintenance has begun. The outage is expected to last for at least three weeks. 

The ongoing crisis over the Strait of Hormuz could delay some of QatarEnergy’s expansion projects, as critical equipment remains unable to reach Qatar, its CEO said this week. Several trains linked to the North Field East expansion are due to start up in 2027, followed by the North Field South expansion in 2028. Meanwhile, the two LNG trains damaged in the March attacks are expected to take three years to repair.

 

Long-term forecasts from most analysts point to a warmer-than-normal start to winter across western Europe, with Britain expected to be 0.5 to 1°C above the long-term average, partly driven by a strong El Niño. This would be welcome given Europe’s low gas storage level, currently at 70.20%, which leaves the market vulnerable to further supply disruptions and periods of cold weather. 

Current Prices
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UK Gas (NBP) - Rolling 12-Month Average
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Sustainability Spotlight

Government urged for action against false climate and energy claims

What should we believe when it comes to net zero?

A report by the Energy Security and Net Zero Committee urges the UK government to tackle rising climate and energy-transition misinformation. It cites public figures like Richard Tice and Brian Catt, whose claims that net zero makes no difference to climate or that CO₂ has no provable effect have been proven scientifically wrong yet remain widely believed.

The report criticises current messaging as "inconsistent, overly technical," and failing to connect the transition to tangible benefits such as lower bills, warmer homes, jobs, energy security and health improvements. It argues the public needs simple explanations of real-world benefits rather than corporate energy jargon.

The Committee also says the term "net zero" has become "a distraction" from the broader aims of the transition and asks the energy department to drop it from its name, since debate has focused too heavily on the 2050 target rather than wider benefits. The government has two months to respond.

 
Sustainability_Spotlight

 

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