From Baku to Belém: A Round-Up of COP29 & What To Expect At COP30

COP 29: The ‘Finance COP’

The 29th UN climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan last year was dubbed the ‘finance COP’ and while 56,000 delegates from nearly 200 countries attended, it is widely regarded as disappointingly too little, too late.

As the label suggests, the key outcome was the “New Collective Quantified Goal” of $300 billion a year for climate finance in the developing countries. This was a compromise following intense negotiations, met with frustration and outrage, as UN experts noted this number was a far cry from the trillions needed to combat the climate crisis. The target agreed was “at least” $300 billion a year with calls to work together to mobilise finance up to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, however neither figure was accompanied by a concrete action plan. Added as negotiations came to a close, a “Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T” report outlining methods to scale up climate finance was decided and tasked to the Azerbaijani and Brazilian COP presidencies to assemble ahead of COP30.

Other successes included:

• Finalisation of Article 6 Rulebook. Outstanding rules and standards for carbon markets were agreed on after nearly a decade of long-stalled work from the Paris Agreement. Country-to-country trading and a centralised UN carbon crediting mechanism are now fully operational.
• Transparency and Adaptation. The first Biennial Transparency Reports were submitted, representing a new milestone in national transparency on climate target progress, adaptation and capacity. Delegates agreed to include the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) as a standing agenda item for future meetings and, even though discussions were derailed, countries agreed to launch the Baku Adaptation Roadmap for global climate resilience. 

However, while COP29 set the finance floor, it failed to resolve crucial energy transition decisions, pushing them to future summits. For sustainability professionals and the energy industry, these shortcomings and the lack of practical implementation still require urgent attention to move from symbolic commitments to action.  

Which is exactly why now, on the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, all eyes are on COP30. 

COP 30: The ‘Implementation COP’ 

 COP30 will convene in the Amazon Rainforest in Belem, Brazil, from 10th to 21st November. The COP Action Agenda is packed with objectives to intensify emission reductions, climate adaptation and sustainable economies, and the hottest talking point is the launch of the Baku-Belém finance roadmap. Here are key expectations as the summit kicks off: 

• Presentation of NDCs 3.0. Nationally Developed Contributions (NDCs) are national climate plans legally required to be updated every 5 years under the Paris Agreement. The second update was due in February, however, as of September, only X of 190 countries have submitted so the rest need to follow in the coming weeks.
  
  Keir Starmer announced the ambitious new UK NDC at COP29 last year, pledging that the UK will cut emissions by 81% compared to 1990 levels by 2035.
  
  EU member states only submitted their updated NDC at the eleventh hour, last Thursday. The EU Council agreed to a net emissions reduction of 90% by 2040, with a an indicative target of 72.5% reduction for 2035. 
  
  
• Finance pledges to move from promises to plans. COP29’s $300bn pledge was met with widespread disappointment, but the commitment must now be transformed into implementation. The Baku-Belém Roadmap details how $1.3 trillion annual climate finance for developing countries will be delivered by 2035 from all international actors. Achieving this scale-up will require innovative mechanisms and is crucial to pivot from climate ambition to action.
  
  

  COP30 will also see the Loss and Damage Fund launch its first call for funding requests, opening access to finance for projects supporting communities impacted by climate change. 

   

• Nature and Adaptation taking centre stage. COP30 negotiators are set to finalise indicators to measure progress on the GGA. Integrating nature-based solutions, reforming food systems and advancing Indigenous land rights are expected to remain central to discussions, as the summit takes place in the heart of the Amazon. 
  
  

• A stocktake of renewables. Building on COP28 agreements, COP30 will focus on accelerating the global energy transition to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. There will be a strong emphasis on a “just transition” away from fossil fuels and ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon future is fair and inclusive. 

How could this affect your business? 

Although business may not be directly affected by COP30, the decisions made can quickly trickle down, creating risks and opportunities. You can anticipate new national policies aligned with the updated NDCs across energy, industry, agriculture and transport, with potential trade restrictions. Accompanied by knock-on effects for stricter compliance and reporting, finance conditionality will increasingly favour green project or climate transition plan investment. Expectations on transparency and data quality of corporate emissions will also tighten.